South Africa: Budget Credibility and the Sustainable Development Goals

South Africa: Budget Credibility and the Sustainable Development Goals

According to Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability assessments from 2008 and 2014, South Africa has maintained high levels of budget credibility at both the aggregate level and the individual vote level. The small variation recorded in these reports has been attributed to a strong link between budget formulation and execution. There does not appear to have been a more recent review or an assessment of budget credibility at the vote or sectoral level.

This brief explores challenges and improvements in South Africa’s budget allocation, implementation, and overall credibility and shows how these measures impact service delivery, poverty reduction, and progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The brief analyzes South Africa’s budget allocation and execution in seven sectors related to 10 SDGs and covers the budget years 2018-19 to 2020-21. The brief also draws from South Africa’s 2019 Voluntary National Review, which offers a self-assessment and reflection on the impact of government policies and programmes toward attaining the SDGs.

While South Africa has made developmental progress since the advent of democracy in 1994, the country remains among the most unequal societies in the world, with extreme poverty and inequality and high levels of unemployment. Despite early and ongoing support for the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, several acute challenges remain, and significant coordination, leadership, and improved accountability mechanisms will be required to realize Agenda 2030.

Goal 16 of the SDGs—on peace, justice, and effective institutions—recognizes that accountable and inclusive institutions are central to people’s wellbeing and underpin government efforts to reach SDG targets in other sectors. In particular, under target 16.6, which aims to “[d]evelop effective, accountable, and transparent institutions at all levels,” indicator 16.6.1 gauges budget credibility by measuring “[p]rimary government expenditures as a proportion of original approved budget, by sector (or by budget codes or similar).” This indicator relies on the South Africa: Budget Credibility and the Sustainable Development Goals methodology for measuring Budget Reliability in the 2016 PEFA framework, which assesses whether governments spend as intended in the budgets approved by legislatures. While data on indicator 16.6.1 currently reports budget deviations at an aggregate level, there is not yet a consolidated reporting mechanism for the indicator showing deviations in each sector. This means that many countries may not be tracking or identifying which sectors are effectively deprioritized during budget implementation.

Key findings include:

  • South Africa has good credibility patterns on an aggregate level; however, at least two sectors—agriculture and gender equality—show consistent underspending trends.
  • Some of the more significant deviations in 2020 were the result of additional support required to alleviate impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, represented and explained in the 2020 supplementary budget; however, the final approved budget allocations were not published, so spending patterns were assessed against the initial allocation. Gender equality is analyzed using the allocation and spending for women in the Department of Women, Youth and Persons with Disabilities
  • Challenges remain for achieving the SDG goals assessed in this brief, and most show a stagnating or declining trend, with the exception of gender equality, which, according to the SDG dashboard indicators, has improved. The persistence of Gender Based Violence in South Africa suggests that the indicator only provides a partial insight into issues of gender equality in South Africa.
  • Although South Africa has not as yet fully implemented a gender-sensitive budgeting approach, various departments, led by National Treasury, are making progress with establishing the necessary guidelines and requirements to integrate the Gender Responsive Planning, Budgeting, Monitoring, Evaluation, and Auditing Framework into the budget process.
  • Efficiency and effectiveness of expenditure remains a concern, and several challenges with regard to expenditure management (including poor internal controls, irregular expenditure; and fruitless and wasteful expenditure) could be contributing to poor alignment between budget allocation, spending, and SDG outcomes.

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This publication is a part of Connecting Budget Credibility to the Sustainable Development Goals

Ghana: Budget Credibility and the Sustainable Development Goals

Ghana: Budget Credibility and the Sustainable Development Goals

Ghana’s efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 face major challenges, with rapid progress still needed in sectors related to the goals on hunger, gender equity and health. To accelerate progress toward development goals, Ghana needs to effectively mobilize domestic and international financing for programs that can address these challenges. National budgets are central to this effort; however, many governments deviate from planned budgets during implementation, a challenge known as budget credibility, which can result in shortchanging or deprioritizing spending in social sectors. The SDGs recognize this challenge with tracking indicator 16.6.1, which looks at government expenditures as compared to the approved budget, however, in many countries, including Ghana, public discussion around funding on the SDGs focuses more on allocations than implementation.

The government has shown its commitment to tracking investments toward the SDGs by publishing a budget report that shows allocations according to the SDGs. However, data has not been released about expenditure according to those allocation targets. This brief therefore looks at budget credibility patterns from 2018 to 2020 in seven key sectors that relate to 10 SDG goals, using available budget data from ministries as a proxy for SDG spending in the absence of more formal tracking systems for budget execution information on SDG spending. This analysis aims to show how Ghana’s current performance on budget credibility can potentially impact wider efforts to achieve the SDGs, and provides recommendations for how the government, development partners and civil society can expand awareness and action about budget credibility in SDG and development goal discussions. Download the paper.

Sub-Saharan Africa: Open Budget Survey 2021

Sub-Saharan Africa: Open Budget Survey 2021

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The Open Budget Survey (OBS) is an assessment of fiscal transparency, public participation and formal oversight in the budget process across a range of countries, conducted every two years.

 

This brief focuses on the OBS performance of a number of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. The region has achieved notable gains in budget transparency over the past decade despite a dip in scores in 2017. Between 2008 and 2021, the regional average transparency score improved by 16 points among the countries with available data, from 23 to 39. This amounts to a nearly 70% increase, making it one of the better performing regions in the OBS. Download the report.

Open Budget Survey 2021

Open Budget Survey 2021

Open Budget Survey 2021

The Open Budget Survey is the world’s only comparative, independent, and regular assessment of transparency, oversight and participation in national budgets in 120 countries.

As is the case in every round, the 2021 survey represents the collective work of our global network of researchers in each country. This round, however, we did something different. We leaned into partnership and worked hand-in-hand with a select group of partners to co-author our global report and eight regional reports. This new approach has allowed us to benefit from the rich insights of our global partners and present key recommendations to spur action at the global, regional and country level.

The 2021 survey comes at a time when accountable and inclusive public budgets are more urgent than ever. The pandemic has led to the first rise in global extreme poverty in a generation, inequality is soaring and democracy is backsliding. The wealthy have become wealthier, while the excluded, especially women and marginalized communities are bearing the brunt of the fallout. Governments need to open up to public dialogue around how best to manage scarce public resources if we are to meet these challenges. Inclusion can yield democratic and development dividends in this time of great need and great disruption. If there is one common theme in this latest Open Budget Survey, it is that reform is possible anywhere.

Over the last 13 years, we have documented steady gains in global transparency. The average transparency score in the survey has increased more by than 20 percent since 2008. Download the report.