December 2019 | Dr. Toby Melissa C. Monsod, University of the Philippines School of Economics
Fueled by the introduction of a dedicated sin tax, the budget of the Philippines’ Department of Health (DOH) rose almost five-fold between 2010 and 2018. However, during this period, the Philippines’ Department of Health (DOH) struggled to utilize its full budget. To better understand why, this paper analyzes five regions with different spending patterns.
Download the paper here.
December 2019 | By Jason Lakin and John Kinuthia
To what extent do county governments in Kenya deliver on their budget promises? Which sectors of the budget tend to be spent as budgeted, and which tend to receive more or less than what was allocated? What patterns do we observe across different counties, and to what extent can we identify common factors that relate to credibility? This paper dives deep into these questions, mainly with respect to the composition of the budget, though also examining overall revenue and expenditure.
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Roll Over: Budget Credibility in Kenya’s Counties
December 2019 | By Chloe Cho and Jason Lakin, International Budget Partnership
This paper investigates the link between underspending and performance in the irrigation sector, focusing on 5 countries. Lack of transparency makes it difficult to establish this relationship, but available evidence suggests that failure to spend budgets can impede the execution of irrigation projects, affecting SDGs.
Reaping What You Sow: A look at underspending on irrigation in 5 countries (December 2019)
Underspending on Irrigation in Albania
Underspending on Irrigation in Brazil
Underspending on Irrigation in the Dominican Republic
Underspending on Irrigation in Kenya
Underspending on Irrigation in Mozambique
Revised September 2019 | By Samuel Atiku and Jason Lakin
Budget credibility – the degree to which governments implement their budgets – is a challenge all over the world, in a wide range of sectors and programs. Nigeria has long had severe budget credibility issues, and recent evidence suggests the problem has not improved. While central government reports do sporadically acknowledge budget credibility challenges, understanding the nature and extent of low budget credibility in Nigeria requires digging further into disaggregated revenue and expenditure data.
This paper probes the various factors that that may be contributing to the low credibility of the budget in Nigeria and presents an analysis structured around an assessment of eight different hypotheses for what could be driving the problem.
April 2019 | International Budget Partnership
The study of budget credibility examines the extent, nature, causes, and consequences of deviations from approved budgets. Given the degree to which budget deviations can impact major social priorities in health, education, and beyond, it is essential that governments communicate about them. As part of the International Budget Partnership’s Assessing Budget Credibility Project, 24 civil society partners in 23 countries identified a budget credibility challenge in their country and scrutinized a case where the government consistently failed to raise or spend funds as it said it would at the start of the fiscal year. Partners looked for explanations for deviations in published documents and then sought interviews with public officials to further understand the deviations.
These budget credibility country snapshot reports summarize our partners’ research. The broader synthesis report on these findings can be found here.